FORECASTING THE IMPORT DEMAND FOR CHEMICAL FERTILIZER IN THAILAND

  • Chidapa Pisuttinusart Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University, Nontaburi
  • Chalermpon Jatuporn Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University, Nontaburi
  • Vasu Suvanvihok Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University, Nontaburi
  • Nareerut Seerasarn Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University, Nontaburi
Keywords: prediction, chemical fertilizer, Box-Jenkins, agricultural input

Abstract

This study aims to forecast the import demand for chemical fertilizer in Thailand, namely, nitrogen fertilizer, potassium fertilizer, and compound fertilizer. Secondary time series is employed, covering the period from January 2008 to December 2021, or 168 months. The forecasting technique used for the study is the seasonal autoregressive moving average (SARIMA) or the Box-Jenkins method.The empirical results show that the appropriate models for forecasting the import demand of nitrogen fertilizer, potassium fertilizer, and compound fertilizer based on the lowest value of the Akaike criterion and Schwarz criterion are SARIMA(0,0,0)(0,1,1)12, SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,1,1)12, and SARIMA(1,0,0)(2,1,0)12, respectively. The forecasts for the next 12 months (January to December 2022) reveal that the total import demand compared to the previous year for nitrogen fertilizer increased by 5.12%, potassium fertilizer decreased by 8.74%, and compound fertilizer increased by 4.74%.

 

Author Biographies

Chidapa Pisuttinusart, Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University, Nontaburi

Graduate Student, Master of Economics Program

School of Economics, Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University, Nontaburi, Thailand

Research  interests: agricultural economics, forecasting

Chalermpon Jatuporn, Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University, Nontaburi

Ph.D.(Applied Economics), Assistant Professor

School of Economics, Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University, Nontaburi, Thailand

Research  interests: agricultural economics, econometrics, time series and forecasting

Vasu Suvanvihok, Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University, Nontaburi

Ph.D.(Economics), Lecturer

School of Economics, Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University, Nontaburi, Thailand

Research  interests: public economics, environmental economics,industrial economics

Nareerut Seerasarn, Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University, Nontaburi

Ph.D.(Agricultural Resources and Environmental Economics), Assistant Professor

School of Agriculture and Cooperatives, Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University, Nontaburi, Thailand

Research  interests: agricultural extension, agricultural development

Published
2022-05-30
How to Cite
Pisuttinusart, C., Jatuporn, C., Suvanvihok, V., & Seerasarn, N. (2022). FORECASTING THE IMPORT DEMAND FOR CHEMICAL FERTILIZER IN THAILAND. The EUrASEANs: Journal on Global Socio-Economic Dynamics, (3(34), 61-70. https://doi.org/10.35678/2539-5645.3(34).2022.61-70