FORECASTING THE IMPORT DEMAND FOR CHEMICAL FERTILIZER IN THAILAND
This study aims to forecast the import demand for chemical fertilizer in Thailand, namely, nitrogen fertilizer, potassium fertilizer, and compound fertilizer. Secondary time series is employed, covering the period from January 2008 to December 2021, or 168 months. The forecasting technique used for the study is the seasonal autoregressive moving average (SARIMA) or the Box-Jenkins method.The empirical results show that the appropriate models for forecasting the import demand of nitrogen fertilizer, potassium fertilizer, and compound fertilizer based on the lowest value of the Akaike criterion and Schwarz criterion are SARIMA(0,0,0)(0,1,1)12, SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,1,1)12, and SARIMA(1,0,0)(2,1,0)12, respectively. The forecasts for the next 12 months (January to December 2022) reveal that the total import demand compared to the previous year for nitrogen fertilizer increased by 5.12%, potassium fertilizer decreased by 8.74%, and compound fertilizer increased by 4.74%.
International College Suan Sunandha
Rajabhat University, Bangkok, Thailand